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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 50

Detroit Lions 23 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SF 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model