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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Detroit Lions 29

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 38-J.Hayne to SF 40 for 2 yards (59-T.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model