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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 16

Detroit Lions 29 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.69 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 16, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model