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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to DET 26, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model