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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 65

Detroit Lions 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-I.Abdul-Quddus. 42-I.Abdul-Quddus up the middle to DET 39 for 4 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model