Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SEA 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 7 yards (37-C.Bryant). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.09 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model