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St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 11.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

STL
17.3%
SEA
82.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.202 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.289 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LA on 3 more days rest than SEA

Predicted Final Score

STL 17
–
SEA 30
Projected margin: SEA by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

STL

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee
Bradley Marquez WR Questionable Knee
Lamarcus Joyner CB Questionable Back
Eric Patterson CB Questionable Ankle

SEA

Marshawn Lynch RB Out Abdomen
Jordan Hill DT Doubtful Toe
Anthony McCoy TE Doubtful Knee
Kam Chancellor S Questionable Pelvis
Russell Okung T Questionable Calf
Doug Baldwin WR Questionable Hamstring
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Toe
Cliff Avril DE Probable Not Injury Related
Jermaine Kearse WR Probable Calf
Jeremy Lane CB Probable Knee
DeShawn Shead S Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 23
–
SEA 17

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:15 FG LA (8:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 06:47 TD LA (6:47) 61-L.Jeanpierre reported in as eligible. 46-W.Tukuafu right guard to 50 for no gain (26-M.Barron). FUMBLES (26-M.Barron), RECOVERED by LA-56-A.Ayers at SEA 45. 56-A.Ayers for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 9 – SEA 0
  • Q2 06:49 TD LA (6:49) 17-C.Keenum pass deep right to 18-K.Britt for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 16 – SEA 0
  • Q2 00:19 FG SEA (:19) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. STL 16 – SEA 3
  • Q3 08:28 TD SEA (8:28) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-31-M.Alexander, Illegal Contact, declined. STL 16 – SEA 9
  • Q4 10:37 TD LA (10:37) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 22 – SEA 10
  • Q4 00:27 TD SEA (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 15-J.Kearse for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. STL 23 – SEA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SEA 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 7 yards (37-C.Bryant). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 21.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:02) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to LA 47, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-T.Austin to 50 for 3 yards (35-D.Shead).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 85%

    (8:15) 4-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 46%

    (2:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to LA 5, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-15-J.Kearse.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (13:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SEA 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on LA-6-J.Hekker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 31.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-K.Smith.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (:19) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 77%

    (10:25) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-C.Helfet to LA 17 for 13 yards (31-M.Alexander).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%

    (3:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to SEA 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to LA 38, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (7:25) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to LA 6, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-28-M.Burley.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to 50, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to LA 48, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to LA 35 for 13 yards (34-C.Reynolds).