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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-C.Helfet to LA 17 for 13 yards (31-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model