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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to LA 38, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model