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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 92

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to LA 47, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-T.Austin to 50 for 3 yards (35-D.Shead).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 92, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 50, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model