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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to LA 6, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-28-M.Burley.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model