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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to LA 5, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-15-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.36 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP