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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.49 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model