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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Saturday 2015-12-26 · 20:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

WAS
59.6%
PHI
40.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI defense: +0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.035 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.133 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 24
–
PHI 21
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

WAS

Perry Riley LB Out Foot
Dashon Goldson S Questionable Rib
Ryan Grant WR Questionable Abdomen
Matt Jones RB Questionable Hip
Josh LeRibeus C Questionable Ankle
Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle
Will Compton LB Probable Neck
Kedric Golston DE Probable Calf
Jason Hatcher DE Probable Neck
DeSean Jackson WR Probable Foot
Jeron Johnson S Probable Hamstring
Frank Kearse DE Probable Finger
Ryan Kerrigan LB Probable Toe
Jordan Reed TE Probable Shoulder
Keenan Robinson LB Probable Shoulder
Chris Thompson RB Probable Shoulder

PHI

Seyi Ajirotutu WR Questionable Ankle
Bennie Logan DT Questionable Calf
Byron Maxwell CB Questionable Shoulder
Sam Bradford QB Probable left Shoulder
Eric Rowe CB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 38
–
PHI 24

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:10 TD PHI (12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 05:55 TD WAS (5:55) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 86-J.Reed for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on WAS-88-P.Garcon, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. WAS 6 – PHI 7
  • Q1 01:06 TD WAS (1:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – PHI 7
  • Q2 06:00 FG PHI (6:00) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. WAS 13 – PHI 10
  • Q2 01:46 FG WAS (1:46) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 16 – PHI 10
  • Q3 07:03 TD WAS (7:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 22 – PHI 10
  • Q3 04:51 TD PHI (4:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-D.Murray left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 16
  • Q3 03:22 TD WAS (3:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 22, RECOVERED by WAS-23-D.Hall at PHI 17. 23-D.Hall for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 29 – PHI 17
  • Q4 09:00 TD WAS (9:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 36 – PHI 17
  • Q4 04:40 TD PHI (4:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 38 – PHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (11:15) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:44) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 17 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:50) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to WAS 34, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 39 for 5 yards (56-B.Braman).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 20 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 36%

    (14:16) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 7, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:10) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 34-K.Barner to PHI 39 for -3 yards (93-T.Murphy). Penalty on PHI-34-K.Barner, Illegal Substitution, declined.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:20) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:19) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to PHI 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (6:00) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:26) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (1:46) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:40) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to WAS 29, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-34-K.Barner.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:23) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 10 for no gain (22-D.Everett).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:12) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 46 for 5 yards (10-J.Krause).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:10) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 18, and recovers at PHI 21. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 21 for no gain (22-D.Everett).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:51) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-34-K.Barner.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 32 for 4 yards (38-D.Goldson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 62%

    (5:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short middle to 81-J.Matthews to WAS 11 for 24 yards (38-D.Goldson).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 27%

    (3:27) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

    (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete short middle to 81-J.Matthews (52-K.Robinson).