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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model