Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 81

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(8:19) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to PHI 42, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.27 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model