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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.05 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model