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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 71

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.93 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP