4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 30

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-34-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model