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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 38

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 32 for 4 yards (38-D.Goldson).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model