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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 49

Washington Commanders 38 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model