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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 58

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model