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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread -2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DET
46.9%
CHI
53.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DET

Travis Swanson C Out Shoulder
Jason Jones DE Doubtful Neck
Calvin Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Shoulder
Ameer Abdullah RB Questionable Shoulder
Nevin Lawson CB Questionable Shoulder
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Foot
Michael Ola T Questionable Knee
Josh Bynes LB Probable Thumb

CHI

Hroniss Grasu C Doubtful Knee
Eddie Royal WR Doubtful Illness
Zach Miller TE Questionable Toe
Willie Young LB Questionable Rib
Adrian Amos S Questionable Shoulder
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Quadricep
Matt Forte RB Questionable Back
Jarvis Jenkins DE Questionable Ankle
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Concussion
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Ankle
Mitch Unrein DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
CHI 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:19 TD DET (10:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 83-T.Wright for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 00:01 FG DET (:01) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 10 – CHI 0
  • Q3 09:09 FG CHI (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 10 – CHI 3
  • Q3 05:37 TD CHI (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 11-J.Bellamy for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – CHI 9
  • Q3 01:15 TD DET (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – CHI 10
  • Q4 13:29 TD CHI (13:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 22-M.Forte for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – CHI 16
  • Q4 08:52 TD DET (8:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – CHI 17
  • Q4 05:44 FG CHI (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 24 – CHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CHI 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 47 for 19 yards (25-T.Riddick). PENALTY on CHI-27-S.McManis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CHI 30.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to DET 20, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

    (7:01) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:36) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 56%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 81-C.Johnson [92-P.McPhee].

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 67%

    (9:09) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:00) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to DET 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to DET 41 for 7 yards (50-T.Lewis).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:42) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to CHI 43, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.