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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 16

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model