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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 67

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to DET 20, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP