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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model