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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

JAX
44.9%
HOU
55.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • JAX offense: +0.009 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

JAX

Abry Jones DT Out Knee
Telvin Smith LB Out Shoulder
T.J. Yeldon RB Out Knee
Jermey Parnell T Questionable Hamstring
Hayes Pullard LB Questionable Hamstring
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Johnathan Cyprien S Probable Thigh
Allen Hurns WR Probable Thigh
Luke Joeckel T Probable Back
Demetrius McCray CB Probable Not Injury Related
Allen Robinson WR Probable Shoulder
Tyson Alualu DT Probable Ankle
Roy Miller DT Probable Knee
Jared Odrick DE Probable Quadricep

HOU

Jadeveon Clowney LB Out Foot
Cecil Shorts WR Out Hamstring
Jeoffrey Pagan DE Questionable Illness
Alfred Blue RB Probable Calf
A.J. Bouye CB Probable Knee
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Jared Crick DE Probable Back
B.J. Daniels WR Probable Chest
Brian Hoyer QB Probable Concussion
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Ankle
Kevin Johnson CB Probable Foot
Whitney Mercilus LB Probable Back
Rahim Moore S Probable Illness
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Probable Calf
J.J. Watt DE Probable Groin
Ryan Griffin TE Probable Achilles
Ben Jones C Probable Ankle
Derek Newton T Probable Elbow
Brian Peters LB Probable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 6
–
HOU 30

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:27 FG HOU (5:27) 8-N.Novak 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. JAX 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 14:19 TD HOU (14:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 41-J.Grimes for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – HOU 9
  • Q2 10:17 FG JAX (10:17) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 3 – HOU 10
  • Q2 05:41 TD HOU (5:41) (Shotgun) 41-J.Grimes up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – HOU 16
  • Q2 00:08 FG HOU (:08) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. JAX 3 – HOU 20
  • Q3 00:46 FG JAX (:46) 2-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 6 – HOU 20
  • Q4 03:28 FG HOU (3:28) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. JAX 6 – HOU 23
  • Q4 03:17 TD HOU (3:17) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 15-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Jackson at JAX 27. 25-K.Jackson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – HOU 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:48) 19-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 22 for 11 yards (25-P.Thompson; 58-J.Tripp).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 41 for 7 yards (53-M.Bullough).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 49%

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Thomas (93-J.Crick).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (5:27) 8-N.Novak 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:59) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 31 for 3 yards (29-J.Banyard; 57-T.Armbrister). PENALTY on HOU-43-C.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 31.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 85%

    (10:17) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:54) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to JAX 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 42 for 20 yards (40-K.Drummond, 52-B.Peters).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:31) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 13 for 5 yards (57-T.Armbrister).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:42) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 38 for 13 yards (22-C.Polk).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 71%

    (:08) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 39 for 10 yards (21-D.Morris).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (9:59) 19-B.Anger punts 35 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 2-B.Daniels.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 68%

    (3:55) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short right to 22-C.Polk (31-D.House).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:58) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 13 for -1 yards (86-C.Harbor).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (:46) 2-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%

    (11:19) 8-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 71%

    (3:28) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 78%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 11-M.Lee to HOU 15 for 14 yards (51-J.Simon).