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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 13 for 5 yards (57-T.Armbrister).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model