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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 74

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to JAX 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 38 for 13 yards (22-C.Polk).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model