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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 84

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to JAX 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 41 for 7 yards (53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.04 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model