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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 2 at the 33
Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(:08) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
The Three Options
GO
+1.24 EP
-
54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.36 EP
- 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -0.10 EP
KICK
+2.03 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
