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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 2 at the 34
Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(3:55) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short right to 22-C.Polk (31-D.House).
The Three Options
GO
+1.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
KICK
+0.71 EP
- 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
