Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Houston Texans 20

(2:58) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Tinker. 2-B.Daniels to HOU 13 for -1 yards (86-C.Harbor).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +3.05 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model