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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 16

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model