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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NE
62.6%
MIA
37.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.036 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.165 EPA/dropback
  • MIA defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 25
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NE

Justin Coleman CB Out Concussion
Julian Edelman WR Out Foot
Jonathan Freeny LB Out Hand
Dont'a Hightower LB Out Knee
Chandler Jones DE Out Abdomen
Sebastian Vollmer T Out Ankle
Rob Ninkovich DE Questionable Shin
Sealver Siliga DT Questionable Not Injury Related
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Knee
Scott Chandler TE Questionable Knee
Patrick Chung S Questionable Foot
Josh Kline G Questionable Shoulder
Brandon LaFell WR Questionable Foot
Devin McCourty S Questionable Ankle
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Shoulder

MIA

Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Ankle
Mike Pouncey C Doubtful Foot
Jamil Douglas G Questionable Ankle
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Toe
Rishard Matthews WR Questionable Ribs
Earl Mitchell DT Questionable Calf
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Thigh
Ryan Tannehill QB Probable Thigh
Billy Turner G Probable Calf
Jarvis Landry WR Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 10
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:10 FG MIA (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. NE 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 08:10 FG NE (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – MIA 3
  • Q2 00:40 TD MIA (:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-D.Parker for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NE 3 – MIA 9
  • Q3 12:37 TD NE (12:37) 39-S.Jackson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – MIA 10
  • Q4 07:05 TD MIA (7:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-J.Cameron for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – MIA 16
  • Q4 02:00 FG MIA (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. NE 10 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:09) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to NE 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 82-K.Martin.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:02) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to MIA 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

    (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:41) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%

    (14:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (8:10) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to NE 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 82-K.Martin pushed ob at NE 35 for 17 yards (56-J.Johnson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 77%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:21) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 56 yards to NE 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 82-K.Martin to NE 33 for 10 yards (28-Bo.McCain).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:54) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to MIA 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 28 for 9 yards (85-M.Williams).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 35%

    (7:53) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:41) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to MIA 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 22 for 11 yards (52-D.Watson).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 51%

    (2:12) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller right tackle to NE 39 for no gain (91-J.Collins; 97-A.Branch).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:03) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%

    (13:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to NE 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-52-D.Watson, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NE 8.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:59) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 19-B.LaFell.