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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to NE 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 82-K.Martin pushed ob at NE 35 for 17 yards (56-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.53 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP