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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 28

New England Patriots 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model