Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 67

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

(10:54) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to MIA 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 28 for 9 yards (85-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.12 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model