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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 76

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to MIA 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.65 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP