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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 56

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP