4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to NE 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on NE-52-D.Watson, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at NE 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model