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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 69

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model