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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 74

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 19-B.LaFell.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -1.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model