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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.77 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP