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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP