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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

NO
57.9%
ATL
42.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.236 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NO

Marques Colston WR Out Chest
Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Hip
Andrus Peat T Out Concussion
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Drew Brees QB Probable Foot
Jairus Byrd S Probable Knee
Josh Hill TE Probable Concussion
Cameron Jordan DE Probable Back
Zach Strief T Probable Elbow

ATL

Tevin Coleman RB Out Concussion
Robert Alford CB Probable Ankle
Devonta Freeman RB Probable Knee
Matt Ryan QB Probable Hip
Eric Weems WR Probable Concussion
Roddy White WR Probable Ankle
Paul Worrilow LB Probable Knee
Phillip Adams CB Probable Hamstring
Chris Chester G Probable Shoulder
Justin Durant LB Probable Hip
Devin Hester WR Probable Toe
Grady Jarrett DT Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 20
–
ATL 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:48 FG ATL (6:48) 6-S.Graham 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. NO 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 03:19 TD NO (3:19) 34-T.Hightower right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 14:35 TD ATL (14:35) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-T.Moeaki for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – ATL 9
  • Q2 10:54 TD NO (10:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 82-B.Watson (30-C.Godfrey) [99-A.Clayborn]. New Orleans challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-B.Watson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Clayborn]. NO 13 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:30 TD ATL (:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NO 14 – ATL 16
  • Q3 05:34 FG NO (5:34) 5-K.Forbath 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 17 – ATL 17
  • Q4 00:03 FG NO (:03) 5-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 20 – ATL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:42) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 71%

    (6:48) 6-S.Graham 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (7:24) 6-S.Graham 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-C.Jordan), Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (3:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead to ATL 17 for no gain (23-R.Alford).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 24%

    (10:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to NO 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-T.Cadet.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (5:34) 5-K.Forbath 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 46%

    (2:47) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to NO 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ATL 24, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-D.Hester.