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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 5-K.Forbath 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model