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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 21

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 8-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model