Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- NYJ defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- Wind 21 mph
- BUF defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.110 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.123 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
NYJ
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:55 TD BUF (5:55) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: R.Incognito. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
- Q2 13:02 TD BUF (13:02) (Shotgun) 29-K.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-29-K.Williams was injured during the play. He is Out. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NYJ 0 – BUF 13
- Q2 09:42 TD NYJ (9:42) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 15-B.Marshall for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, slanting from right. NYJ 6 – BUF 13
- Q2 00:27 FG BUF (:27) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NYJ 7 – BUF 16
- Q3 13:24 FG NYJ (13:24) 8-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 10 – BUF 16
- Q3 05:05 FG BUF (5:05) 2-D.Carpenter 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NYJ 10 – BUF 19
- Q3 01:15 TD NYJ (1:15) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 87-E.Decker for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, receiver slanting from right. NYJ 16 – BUF 19
- Q4 03:53 FG BUF (3:53) 2-D.Carpenter 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NYJ 17 – BUF 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:36) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to BUF 29, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-W.Powell to BUF 45 for 16 yards (54-J.Lattimore, 57-T.Reilly).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NYJ 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(9:41) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-58-E.Henderson.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:05) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to NYJ 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 25 for 9 yards (51-K.Reddick). Return credited to NYJ 22 (spot of foul). PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.McDougle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 22.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:07) 4-R.Quigley punts 21 yards to NYJ 25, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:31) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-57-T.Reilly.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%
(13:02) (Shotgun) 29-K.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-29-K.Williams was injured during the play. He is Out. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 83%
(12:09) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(11:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 5 yards (20-C.Graham). PENALTY on BUF-15-C.Hogan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 25. C.Hogan ran out of bounds and did not immediately return in-bounds.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%
(:27) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%
(13:24) 8-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 71%
(7:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (24-D.Revis; 21-M.Gilchrist). Caught in flat at NYJ 23.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%
(5:05) 2-D.Carpenter 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(15:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NYJ 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 4 yards (15-C.Hogan).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 24 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%
(3:53) 2-D.Carpenter 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NYJ 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 18 for 6 yards (59-A.Tarpley).