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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 16 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (24-D.Revis; 21-M.Gilchrist). Caught in flat at NYJ 23.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model